Bull or Bear Market… Doesn’t Matter

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If you don’t think politics and policy influence the market, then you’re sadly mistaken.

A weak jobs number on Friday has virtually guaranteed that the Fed will be cutting rates this year, not once, not twice, but possibly three times.

That said, the market reacted by posting its best weekly gains of 2019… the Dow rose by more than 1300 points and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

The S&P 500 surged by 4.4% and comfortably trading above the Death Line.

But as I’ve been telling traders… the charts can only tell half the story… if you’re not following what the Fed is doing, then you are playing the game wrong.

Heck, I’ve been preparing readers all year for a dovish Fed (here’s a post from January):

The market is pricing in about a 90% chance that the Fed will NOT hike rates for the foreseeable future. This is a signal that they are worried about the delicate nature of our economy right now. I think they are right to keep a lid on rates, in fact, I really disagree with how much they raised rates to begin with. They may need to backpedal on that sooner than they hoped for. That is a bullish sign for bond prices.


(I love Fed catalyst events, and I love trading options. Get in the game and join WMM now)

Again, I’m not looking for a pat on the back… I’m trying to make money… and I’m trying to make it fast…

That said, the next FOMC meeting is not till the 19th. However, I’m going to spend plenty of time updating you and presenting trade ideas as they come along.

That said, keep your eyes peeled on Chinese stocks. Many of them have gotten absolutely destroyed over the last few months.

Furthermore, the sentiment is starting to improve, and there are hopes that the trade war between China can end soon.

However, I’m not waiting for that announcement to be official… by that time it will be too late. I’ve already started pecking at some names like Alibaba (BABA).


(A lot of the Chinese ADRs have gotten beaten up, so I’m looking for more of these plays, if you’re not a WMM client and want my real-time alerts along with Nathan Bear’s then click here to sign up now)


That said, it’s time to explore what the upcoming week has to offer. Here’s what I’m watching in terms of earnings, IPOs, economic catalysts, and much more.


What’s on Tap


Well, the Dow snapped its six-week losing streak… and posted its best weekly gain since November (the S&P 500 had its best weekly gain since November too).

The reason: markets are thinking the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could cut interest rates at its next meeting…

… yes, if the story sounds familiar, that’s because it is.

It’s no surprise that the FOMC noted it would step in and look to cut interest rates if the economy and markets show signs of weakness. That’s why I’m keeping a close eye on the Fed and other macro indicators now.

With such a weak jobs report on Friday (nonfarm payrolls came in at +75K, while the consensus estimate was 180K)… it’s no longer a question of whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but when, how many times, and by how much.

At the next FOMC meeting, the markets are already pricing in a 27.5% probability of a rate cut.



… for the July meeting, the markets are already pricing in a 63.3% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, and a 21.9% chance of a 0.50% rate cut…



Now, if you don’t understand the Fed and how it works… you’re missing out on a lot of opportunities, especially with the Fed upcoming Fed meeting… trades like these in TLT.



As I know with the Fed… they’re data dependent, so I’m going to wait for more clues as we’ve got some very important economic indicators coming up (more on that later).

If you want to learn more about the Fed, get my thoughts on the market… as well as receive real-time text and email alerts (not just from me, but from Nathan Bear too), watchlists, and so much more… click here to get started.

If you don’t know what Nathan Bear is all about, check out what he has to say about his six-figure performance as he sits down with WealthWise host Ben Sturgill, despite all the recent volatility.



Traders are trying to figure out whether they should buy this recent dip… or sell the rip.

I’m not trying to figure that out right now because it’s still a news-driven market, and like the Fed, I’m waiting and looking for clear signs to tell me when and where I should buy options or puts.

Now, my strategy has remained the same. I’m still keeping a balanced portfolio and have plays that will benefit when the market goes up… and positions that will benefit if the market goes down… like this trade in Alibaba (BABA).


(I alerted WMM clients about this BABA trade… and in just one day, I was up 70%+ on it, if you want to receive alerts to trades like these… click here to get started)


Not only am I watching the overall market, I’m also looking at some stock specific plays…

For example, I’m looking at oversold large caps that are lagging the market, like Wynn Resorts (WYNN).



Now, this is a longer-term trade for me and has just around 40 days until expiration… it’s been pretty beaten down, and I’m anticipating a bounce going into the new casino opening later this month.

I think any good news (like a gangbuster opening of the Encore casino) could send this stock higher by $10.

Moving on.

We’ve got a lot of economic indicators to be focused on this week, as they’ll all give clues as to what the FOMC could say and do… which should uncover opportunities in stocks, SPY, as well as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

That said, let’s take a look at the economic calendar, as well as some key earnings… and the IPO calendar.


Economic Calendar


Monday June 10, 2019

  • Jolts at 10:00 AM ET.


Tuesday June 11, 2019

  • PPI-FD at 8:30 AM ET.


Wednesday June 12, 2019

  • CPI at 8:30 AM ET.
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET.
  • Treasury Budget at 2:00 PM ET.


Thursday June 13, 2019

  • Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET.
  • Import and Export Prices at 8:30 AM ET.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30 AM ET.
  • Fed Balance Sheet at 4:30 PM ET.


Friday June 14, 2019

  • Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET.
  • Industrial Production at 9:15 AM ET.
  • Business Inventories at 10:00 AM ET.


Now, these indicators will be very important to the FOMC, as they’ll be able to assess how the economy is actually doing. I’ll be keeping these on the radar and try to find any clues or signals as to what stocks and ETFs to potentially trade.

Any signs of a growing economy, the Fed will probably not cut rates at the meeting… however, if there are signs of a slowing economy, the FOMC could cut rates. Since we’re dealing with the Fed here, I’m going to wait and see how these indicators come in.

Moving on.

The earnings calendar is going to be relatively light for the next couple of weeks until we get into earnings season in July… however, there are some names we’ll be watching.


Earnings Calendar


Monday June 10, 2019

Earnings Before Open

  • Thor Industries (THO) implying 11.57% move (monthly contracts expiring on June 21). Historical average move 9.89%.


Earnings After Close

  • Caseys General Stores (CASY) implying 6.07% move (monthly contracts expiring on June 21). Historical average move 7.66%.


Tuesday June 11, 2019

Earnings Before Open

  • H&R Block (HRB) implying 8.64% move (monthly contracts expiring on June 21). Historical average move 9.94%.
  • HD Supply Holdings (HDS) implying 5.69% move (monthly contracts expiring on June 21). Historical average move 7.79%.


Earnings After Close

  • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) implying 8.85% move. Historical average move 9.65%.


Wednesday June 12, 2019

Earnings Before Open

  • No notable earnings.


Earnings After Close

  • Lululemon Athletica (LULU) implying 10.46% move. Historical average move 13.91%.
  • RH (RH) implying 15.10% move. Historical average move 25.59%.
  • Tailored Brands (TLRD) implying 26.12% move (monthly contracts expiring on June 21). Historical average move 18.37%.


Thursday June 13, 2019


Earnings Before Open

  • Duluth Holdings (DLTH) implying 13.18% move (monthly contracts expiring on June 21). Historical average move 15.78%.


Earnings After Close

  • Broadcom (AVGO) implying 6.01% move. Historical average move 6.57%.


Thursday June 13, 2019

  • No notable earnings.


IPO Calendar

  • Mohawk Group (MWK) 3.33M share IPO, expected pricing range between $14 – $16 on 6/11.
  • CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) 18M share IPO, expected pricing range between $28 – $30 on 6/12.
  • Fivver International (FVRR) 5.3M share IPO, expected pricing range between $18 – $20 on 6/13.
  • Chewy Inc. (CHWY) 41.6M share IPO, expected pricing range between $17 – $19 on 6/14.


Stay tuned for my next posts (I’ll be going over the Fed and doing a FOMC meeting preview), bookmark this page hereNow, if you want to get the inside scoop of what exactly I’m watching, access to my live-streaming portfolio, email and text alerts… click here to get started.

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