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Stocks closed the week mildly higher, as we now enter earnings season. We’re right near all-time highs, having virtually erased all of November and December’s losses in the market.

The VIX (the market’s fear index) is trading near its yearly lows, at around 12. Over the last 52-weeks the VIX has traded in a range between 10.17 and 36.20.

A low VIX means traders are complacent and greedy. A high VIX means that there are fear and uncertainty in the market (VIX was at 36 last December).

Keeping on an eye on the VIX along with studying Fed actions helps me get a good gauge for market sentiment.

That said, there are times to be aggressive with your trading…for example when stocks are trending… and times to be less active… when stocks are range-bound and trading choppy.

For the last two weeks or so the market has been pretty much range-bound. As for me, I’m staying patient, and waiting for my money pattern to appear.

I mentioned NDAQ in last week’s Jump…

So where do we go from here?

Most traders will be looking at earnings results for further clues. That said, it’s a busy week for earnings despite the market being closed on Friday (Good Friday).

We’ll be hearing results from companies like Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Pepsi, American Express and many more this week.

Read on for the full earnings schedule, economic release dates, my technical view on the market view and a breakdown of my NDAQ trade.

S&P 500 Index Is Near All-Time Highs

The S&P 500 Index is near its all-time high… yet again.

What’s interesting to note is the fact the most of the trading activity in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has come from pre-market trading hours… and only a small portion is from the regular trading hours.

Now, we’re seeing tight intraday ranges, a decrease in volume and SPY put volumes.

With little volatility… the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) has been collapsing to extremes. That said, traders have to start thinking… could volatility start to run again, and witness a drop in SPY?

$VIX vs. SPY

Here’s what I’m watching for in the $VIX at these levels.

Now, compare the $VIX chart with SPY. Keep in mind these are both on the hourly time frame.

With the $VIX at an extreme point, hitting 12… we’re going to be watching volatility and the market closely. More specifically, what I’m looking for right now is the blue line to cross above the red line in the $VIX… and the blue line to cross below the red line in the SPY. If this happens, that tells us there could be a spike in volatility, coupled with a market pullback.

Since the $VIX is at a 12 handle, that tells us traders may be too complacent.

Well, with corporate earnings announcements coming up… that could cause a market pullback. So it’s going to be a wait-and-see approach for us. What I’ll be watching for is my money pattern in stocks.

Just because I’m on the sidelines for market trades, that doesn’t mean I haven’t been trading. For example, on April 5, I alerted Weekly Money Multiplier clients about a bearish trade in Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ).

Here’s a look at what the stock did…

Now, if you’re interested in alerts and trades like these…

That said, there should be a lot more opportunities like this with hundreds of companies reporting earnings in the coming weeks.

That said, let’s look at the economic calendar and the corporate earnings calendar.

Earnings Calendar and Economic Calendar

 

Monday, April 15, 2019

 

Economic Calendar

  • 8:30 AM EST                   Empire Manufacturing Index
  • 4:00 PM EST                   Net-Long term TIC Flows

Earnings Calendar

 

Earnings Before Open

  • Citigroup ( C ) implying 4.13% move. Historical average move 4.76%.
  • Goldman Sachs ( GS ) implying 4.65% move. Historical average move 4.09%.
  • Charles Schwab ( SCHW ) implying 4% move. Historical average move 3.34%.
  • M&T Bank Corp. ( MTB ) implying 3.24% move. Historical average move 3.7%.
  • Aphria Inc (APHA) implying 11.01% move.

Earnings After Close

  • J.B. Hunt Transport ( JBHT ) implying 4.35% move. Historical average move 4.29%.
  • Wintrust Financial ( WTFC ) implying 4.63% move. Historical average move 3.83%.
  • Pinnacle Financial Partners ( PNFP ) implying 3.87% move. Historical average move 3.87%.
  • ServisFirst Bancshares Inc. ( SFBS ) implying 2.95% move. Historical average move 4.46%.

Other Key Events

  • 1:00 PM EST                   Fed’s Evans discusses the economy and monetary policy
  • 8:00 PM EST                   Fed’s Rosengren speaks ad Davidson college in N.C.

Tuesday April 16, 2019

 

Economic Calendar

  • 7:45 AM EST                   ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:55 AM EST                   Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
  • 9:15 AM EST                   Industrial Production
  • 9:15 AM EST                   Capacity Utilization
  • 10:00 AM EST                 NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 4:30 PM EST                   API Weekly Inventory Data

Earnings Calendar

 

Earnings Before Open

  • UnitedHealth Group ( UNH ) implying 4.68% move. Historical average move 4.01%.
  • Bank of America ( BAC ) implying 4.16% move. Historical average move 3.27%.
  • Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ ) implying 3.11% move. Historical average move 3.34%.
  • Progressive Corp. ( PGR ) implying 3.83% move. Historical average move 2.55%.
  • Omnicom Group ( OMC ) implying 3.50% move. Historical average move 5.06%.
  • BlackRock ( BLK ) implying 3.14% move. Historical average move. 3.34%.
  • Comerica Inc. ( CMA ) implying 3.91% move. Historical average move 3.12%.
  • Prologis ( PLD ) implying 3.13% move. Historical average move 2.84%.
  • First Horizon National ( FHN ) implying 5.19% move. Historical average move 3.43%.

Earnings After Close

  • International Business Machines ( IBM ) implying 5.26% move. Historical average move 6.97%.
  • United Continental ( UAL ) implying 5.11% move. Historical average move 8.49%.
  • Netflix ( NFLX ) implying 8.09% move. Historical average move 9.18%.
  • CSX Corp. ( CSX ) implying 4.15% move. Historical average move 5.49%.
  • Interactive Brokers ( IBKR ) 5.28% move. Historical average move 4.54%.

Wednesday April 17, 2019

 

Economic Calendar

  • 7:00 AM EST                   MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:30 AM EST                   Trade Balance for February
  • 10:00 AM EST                 Wholesale Inventories
  • 10:30 AM EST                 Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 2:00 PM EST                   Fed Beige Book Released

Earnings Calendar

 

Earnings Before Open

  • Morgan Stanely ( MS ) implying 4.46% move. Historical average move 4.13%.
  • PepsiCo ( PEP ) implying 2.26% move. Historical average move 2.72%.
  • U.S. Bancorp ( USB ) implying 2.98% move. Historical average move 2.57%.
  • Ericsson ( ERIC ) implying 9.23% move (monthly contract expiring in May). Historical average move 10.41%.
  • Bank of New York Mellon ( BK ) implying 4.02% move. Historical average move 4.21%.
  • Abbott Laboratories ( ABT ) implying 3.64% move. Historical average move 3.71%.

Earnings After Close

  • Las Vegas Sands ( LVS ) implying 4.28% move. Historical average move 3.75%.
  • Kinder Morgan ( KMI ) implying 2.26% move. Historical average move 3.73%.
  • Alcoa ( AA ) implying 7.37% move. Historical average move 6.78%.
  • Crown Holdings ( CCK ) implying 3.88% move. Historical average move 3.88%.
  • United Rentals ( URI ) implying 7.49% move. Historical average move 6.9%.
  • Crown Castle ( CCI ) implying 2.56% move. Historical average move 2.65%.
  • E*Trade Financial ( ETFC ) implying 4.60% move. Historical average move 4.11%.
  • Atlassian Corp. ( TEAM ) implying 9.39% move. Historical average move 12.53%.
  • Plexus Corp. ( PLXS ) implying 6.17% move. Historical average move 8.83%.

Other Key Events

  • 12:30 PM EST                 Fed’s Harker speaks on the Economic Outlook
  • 12:45 PM EST                 Fed’s Bullard speaks at conference
  • 5:30 PM EST                   Fed’s Logan speaks in New York

Thursday April 18, 2019

 

Economic Calendar

  • 8:30 AM EST                   Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM EST                   Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM EST                   Retail Sale
  • 8:30 AM EST                   Philly Fed Survey
  • 9:45 AM EST                   Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
  • 9:45 AM EST                   Markit US Manufacturing PMI
  • 10:00 AM EST                 Leading Index
  • 10:00 AM EST                 Business Inventories
  • 10:30 AM EST                 Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 12:10 PM EST                 Fed’s Bostic speaks at Economic event in Florida

Earnings Calendar

 

Earnings Before Open

  • Union Pacific ( UNP ) implying 3.12% move. Historical average move 4.78%.
  • Travelers ( TRV ) implying 2.74% move. Historical average move 3.3%.
  • Synchrony FInancial ( SYF ) implying 5.06% move. Historical average move 6.35%.
  • Suntrust Banks ( STI )
  • Schlumberger ( SLB ) implying 3.79% move. Historical average move 3.06%.
  • PPG Industries ( PPG ) implying 3.14% move. Historical average move 4.03%.
  • Popular ( BPOP ) implying 5.01% move. Historical average move 5.37%.
  • Philip Morris ( PM ) implying 3.53% move. Historical average move 6.34%.
  • Honeywell ( HON ) implying 2.83% move. Historical average move 2.67%.
  • Genuine Parts ( GPC ) implying 3.69% move. Historical average move 4.97%.
  • Dover Corp. ( DOV ) implying 3.78% move. Historical average move 5.32%.
  • Danaher Corp. ( DHR ) implying 3.46% move. Historical average move 4.16%.
  • The Blackstone Group ( BX ) implying 3.33% move. Historical average move 2.94%.
  • American Express ( AXP ) implying 4.16% move. Historical average move 4.14%.
  • Ally Financial ( ALLY ) implying 4.49% move. Historical average move 4.61%.

Earnings After Close

  • Intuitive Surgical ( ISRG ) implying 3.50% move. Historical average move 5.7%.
  • Exponent ( EXPO ) implying 5.47% move. Historical average move 6.1%.
  • Glacier Bancorp ( GBCI ) implying 7.32% move. Historical average move 3.71%.

Friday April 19, 2019

U.S. Stock market closed in observance of Good Friday.

Economic Calendar

  • 8:30 AM EST                   Housing Starts
  • 8:30 AM EST                   Building Permits
  • 1:00 PM EST                   Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

 

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