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Stocks continue to surge higher, as new all-time highs were set on Friday for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow.

Despite the S&P 500 reaching 3,000 and the Dow Jones blasting through 27,000… this has to be one of the most loathed bull markets I have ever seen.

However, the Fed sees a slowdown in business investments and economic momentum seems to be declining in significant foreign economies.  

My heart and soul don’t believe in this rally… but I trade off my money pattern… and not my emotions.

(Expiration Friday…Where Amazing Happens!)

That said it’s time to pivot.

For the last month or so the market has been focused on politics and policy… but starting next week the attention shifts to corporate earnings.

Companies expected to release include Microsoft, JPMorgan, Johnson & Johson, Netflix, and UnitedHealth Group, to name a few.

Let’s see if the VIX (“the markets fear index”) stays here at 12.39… (it opened at 27.54 on the first day of this year) .

A low VIX implies that traders are complacent. A high VIX implies that traders are fearful and eager to hedge.

Now, I’ll be very shocked if we see the VIX at these levels after earnings season ends.

That said, it’s time to prepare for the upcoming week, review what the Fed said, and talk about some trade ideas.


Market At All-Time Highs, What I’m Focused On


Well, Fed Chair Jerome Powell played his cards right, according to the market. You see, the market has been pricing in a rate cut in July… and as of yesterday, traders are pricing in a 100% of a cut.

The market is pricing in a 76.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, and a 23.5% chance of a 0.50% rate cut.

Now, Powell hinted that the Fed is on course to cut rates by at least 0.25% at the end of this month at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

That said, the market hit a new all-time high and the S&P 500 broke above 3K!

Here’s a look at the hourly chart on SPY.

Now, it’s been trading in range a whole lot over the past few days… and with rate cuts in the cards… the market will be monitoring the Fed closely.

There’s something interesting going on with the bond market now too.

Here’s a look at TLT.

It’s actually been selling off, while the market is moving higher.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve more or less seen bonds and stocks move in the same direction… but now, we’re starting to see bonds collapse, even with the potential interest rate cuts.

That said, I’ll be looking to get into TLT puts very soon if I see a clear signal.

Although the Fed has been all the news lately and traders don’t seem to care about anything else…

However, there’s something that should matter soon: earnings seasons.

Traders are going to have their hands full very soon… and I’m going to love it because there’s going to be a steady stream of earnings coming out for 2Q very soon.


Move Over Powell, It’s Time for Companies to Sit in the Hot Seat


If you don’t know, companies listed on NYSE and Nasdaq must report earnings results to update investors.

Now, with the FOMC looking to cut rates… there’s actually a negative backdrop, as it could be an indication the economy is weak.

Now, focusing on earnings actually helps us with the macro view and figuring out what’s really going on.

Strong earnings across the board will give us an indication that the Fed may change its interest rate view… while weak earnings could mean there would be more rate cuts to come.

Not only that, when earnings come out, there are a few options strategies you could use… the same strategies that Wall Street traders have used for years, and there’s one place you can get your hands on those strategies that are surprisingly simple to use.

The first week of earnings season will kick off with financials, transportation and manufacturing companies… as well as some tech names like Netflix (NFLX), Microsoft (MSFT), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD), and IBM.

I think this earnings season will be the one that provides us with the most opportunities for massive returns. Why?

Well, expectations are low going into the upcoming earnings season.

According to Factset, earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to fall by 3%. If there is an actual decline in earnings… it’ll be the first time the S&P 500 has reported two straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines since 2016.

The reason this is so enticing is due to the fact that if companies report stellar earnings and guide higher… there will be a lot of opportunities.

On the other hand, if earnings are weaker than expected and companies cut their guidance… well, we’ll still have a lot of opportunities when stocks are crashing.

That said, we’ll be watching earnings, as well as the Fed and the overall market, because we’ll be seeing whether the forward-looking guidance justifies these levels in the market.

Before we get into the earnings calendar and implied moves… let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the economic calendar.


Economic Calendar


Monday, July 15


  • 8:30 AM EST               Empire Manufacturing for July
  • 8:50 AM EST               Fed’s Williams speaks at Libor briefing


Tuesday, July 16


  • 7:45 AM EST               ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM EST               Import & Export Prices


  • 8:30 AM EST               Retail Sales
  • 9:15 AM EST               Industrial Production
  • 10:00 AM EST             NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 10:00 AM EST             Business Inventories
  • 3:30 PM EST               Fed’s Evans speaks in Chicago
  • 4:00 PM EST               Net-Long term TIC Flows
  • 4:30 PM EST               API Weekly Inventory Data


Wednesday, July 17  


  • 7:00 AM EST               MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:30 AM EST               Housing Starts
  • 8:30 AM EST               Building Permits
  • 10:30 AM EST             Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • 2:00 PM EST               Fed Beige Book


Thursday, July 18


  • 8:30 AM EST               Weekly Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM EST               Philly Fed Business Outlook
  • 9:45 AM EST               Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
  • 10:00 AM EST             Leading Index
  • 10:30 AM EST             Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • 2:15 PM EST               Fed’s Williams speaks on Monetary Policy


Friday, July 19


  • 10:00 AM EST             University of Michigan Confidence
  • 11:05 AM EST             Fed’s Bullard speaks at Central Bank Research in NY
  • 1:00 PM EST               Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count


Now, let’s jump right into the earnings calendar.


Corporate Earnings Calendar

Monday, July 15



Earnings Before Open



  • Citigroup Inc. ( C ) implying a 3.17% move, historical average move 4.16%.


Earnings After Close

  • J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) implying a 5.33% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 4.3%.
  • Servis First Bancshares (SFBS) implying a 5.20% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 4.25%.
  • Wintrust Financial Corp. (WTFC) implying a 4.78% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 3.83%.


Tuesday, July 16



Earnings Before Open



  • Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) implying a 3.32% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 3.51%.
  • Charles Schwab (SCHW) implying a 3.58% move. Historical average move 3.4%.
  • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) implying a 5.31% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 7.81%.
  • Goldman Sachs Group (GS) implying a 3.68% move. Historical average move 3.85%.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) implying a 2.39% move. Historical average move 3.25%.
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) implying a 2.60% move. Historical average move 2.66%.
  • Prologic (PLD) implying a 3.23% move. Historical average move 2.92%
  • Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) implying a 3.43% move. Historical average move 3.3%.


Earnings After Close



  • Cintas Corporation (CTAS) implying a 4.65% move. Historical average move 6.32%.
  • CSX Corp. (CSX) implying a 3.73% move. Historical average move 5.09%.
  • FNF Group (FNF) implying a 3.18% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 3.85%.
  • Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) implying a 5.16% move. Historical average move 4.24%.
  • United Continental Holdings (UAL) implying a 4.89% move. Historical average move 8.59%.


Wednesday, July 17



Earnings Before Open



  • Abbott Laboratories (ABT) implying a 2.54% move. Historical average move 4.2%.
  • ASML Holding (ASML) implying a 4.93% move. Historical average move 4.83%.
  • Bank of America Corp. (BAC) implying a 3.20% move. Historical average move 3.38%.
  • Bank of New York Mellon (BK) implying a 4.12% move. Historical average move 5.2%.
  • Comerica Inc. (CMA) implying 4.07% move. Historical average move 3.22%.
  • Ericsson (ERIC) implying a 7.92% move. Historical average move 10.5%
  • Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) implying a 3.89% move. Historical average move 5.44% move.
  • Progressive Corp. (PGR) implying a 3.64% move. Historical average move 3.3%.
  • Textron Inc. (TXT) implying a 6.44% move. Historical average move 6.92%.


Earnings After Close

  • ADTRAN Inc. (ADTN) implying a 7.65% move. Historical average move 10.61%.
  • Alcoa Inc. (AA) implying a 7.02% move. Historical average move 7.41%.
  • Crown Castle International (CCI) implying a 2.65% move. Historical average move 2.78%.
  • Crown Holdings (CCK) implying a 3.93% move. Historical average move 4.28%.
  • eBay Inc. (EBAY) implying a 5.68% move. Historical average move 7.09% move.
  • International Business Machines (IBM) implying a 4.66% move. Historical average move 6.97%.
  • Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) implying a 2.63% move. Historical average move 3.83%.
  • Netflix Inc. (NFLX) implying a 6.56% move. Historical average move 8.89%.
  • United Rentals Inc. (URI) implying a 6.93% move. Historical average move 7.24%.


Thursday, July 18



Earnings Before Open



  • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) implying a 6.05% move. Historical average move 7.46%.
  • Ally Financial (ALLY) implying a 5.05% move. Historical average move 4.21%.
  • BB&T (BBT) implying a 3.12% move. Historical average move 3.94%.
  • Blackstone (BX) implying a 3.71% move. Historical average move 3.72%.
  • Genuine Parts Company (GPC) implying a 3.48% move. Historical average move 5.13%.
  • Honeywell International (HON) implying a 3.31% move. Historical average move 2.74%.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) implying a 3.64% move. Historical average move 4.01%.
  • Nucor Corp. (NUE) implying a 3.42% move. Historical average move 3.58%.
  • Philip Morris International (PM) implying a 6.17% move. Historical average move 3.65%.
  • Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) implying a 3.54% move. Historical average move 4.84%.
  • UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) implying a 3.46% move. Historical average move 4.56%.


Earnings After Close

  • Capital One Financial (COF) implying a 3.91% move. Historical average move 5.08%.
  • Chewy Inc. (CHWY) implying a 12.28% move.
  • CrowdStrike Inc. (CRWD) implying an 11.43% move.
  • E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) implying a 4.71% move. Historical average move 4.4%.
  • Exponent Inc. (EXPO) implying a 4.73% move. Historical average move 6.13%.
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) implying a 4.90% move. Historical average move 5.73%.
  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) implying a 3.44% move. Historical average move 4.34%.


Friday, July 19



Earnings Before Open



  • American Express Co. (AXP) implying a 3.17% move. Historical average move 3.62%.
  • BlackRock Inc. (BLK) implying a 2.50% move. Historical average move 3.49% move.
  • Schlumberger (SLB) implying a 4% move. Historical average move 4.05%.
  • State Street Corp. (STT) implying a 4.96% move. Historical average move 6.45%.
  • Synchrony Financial (SYF) implying a 3.87% move. Historical average move 4.54%.

Now, we’ve also got some IPOs on the calendar this week.

IPO Calendar

  • Douyu International (DOYU) 67.3M share IPO expected to price between $11.50 – $14
  • Afya Ltd. (AFYA) 13.74M share IPO expected to price between $16 – $18
  • Assetmark Financial (AMK) 12.5M share IPO expected to price between $19 – $21
  • Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) 4.5M share IPO expected to price between $16 – $18
  • Genmab (GMAB) 27.8M share IPO expected to price
  • Intercorp Financial (IFS) 9M share IPO expected to price between $44 – $50
  • Medallia Inc. (MDLA) 14.5M share IPO expected to price between $16 – $18
  • Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) 5M share IPO expected to price between $14-$16
  • Phreesia Inc. (PHR) 7.812M share IPO expected to price between
  • IHeartMedia Inc. (IHRT) – This is a Direct Public Offering (It’s currently trading on the Pink Sheets)
  • Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) 9.5M shares IPO expected to price between $15.30 – $16.30


Lastly, if you missed out on Thursday night, as I interviewed Jason Bond and figured out the nuts and bolts of his newest options strategy… then you’re gonna want to check out this replay. It will be taken down very soon, so please don’t delay and watch today.

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